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If this transpires, then the US ploy will have helped tamp down the disputes over claims. What made it worse for China was that the US call for multilateral negotiations was publicly supported by several ASEAN countries, despite the fact that China had privately asked tickoing not to broach the subject and not to present a common position.

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The ASEAN claimants also need to sort out the differences in their territorial and jurisdictional claims with each other and international law. Nevertheless, all may not be lost, at least between the US and China. Notes 1 Mark J. In this essay I analyze these thre, identify some of the fundamental questions they raise and conclude that a dramatic compromise may be necessary to avert a worst-case scenario.

None of these arrangements would threaten existing positions and they can all contain a clause that affirms that such arrangements are non-prejudicial to sovereignty and jurisdictional claims. It is not too late to avoid the worst-case scenario: conflict. They could build a archie of functional co-operative arrangements in marine environmental protection, marine scientific research, al safety and search and rescue.

This scenario may be beginning to play out now. However, some say China is dragging its feet and an agreement on a formal code is unlikely.

The south china sea: back to the future? > articles

But the window of opportunity [for an interim resolution] is closing. Indeed, China is not challenging freedom of ticklihg, but what it perceives as US abuse of this right.

Perhaps Beijing and Washington will finally edge towards a formal Incidents at Sea mechanism or guidelines for military activities in exclusive economic zones. This could set the stage for rivalry and tension in the years ahead. In that hope I present below some possible ways to lessen tension.

They should also stop blatantly conspiring against China on this issue lest it provoke a worst-case scenario. And the boundaries are unlikely to be negotiated before the sovereignty of the islands is resolved. This may stem from a long-term domestic belief, made public and prominent in the George W. If this is indeed an accurate description of these classified US activities, these are not passive intelligence collection operations commonly undertaken and usually tolerated by most states, but intrusive and controversial practices that China regards not only as a violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea but archve to a threat to use force.


For example, it should ratify the UNCLOS and press other claimants archvie not just China — to abide by it and other international laws. Others argue that it is just concerned with control of resources — oil, fisheries and sea lanes. Most important, China has been tkckling that Clinton's remarks in Hanoi applied to all claimant countries, and that all the US wants is "a more stable, predictable environment. This would greatly enhance the legitimacy of its claims.

Southeast Asians should be careful what they wish for. But certainly China,30 and probably many other countries, believe the simpler rationale: US hegemony. Published: Dec 20, About the author Mark J.

A necessary but not sufficient condition for resolution of the disputes is for all claimants, particularly China, to clarify their claims in terms consistent with wrchive Convention on the Law of the Sea UNCLOS. These developments have occurred in the context of deteriorating US-China relations and a regional debate regarding the nature and even desirability of a US security role in the region.

China maintains that it is simply defending its security and sovereignty13 and preventing foru, it perceives as "containment. Moreover, these developments have become self-reinforcing, raising fundamental questions for Southeast Asia's regional security. Some even think that a fundamental bargain may be in the offing: if the US refrains from selling arms to Taiwan, particularly F fighter jets, China will co-operate on economic matters.

By attaching a map to its official communication to the UN protesting Vietnam and Malaysia's claim to an extended continental shelf, China further confused the situation. It seems to want to balance China with US support and seems willing to risk its relations with Beijing to do so.

Unfortunately, China is highly unlikely to give up its historic claim without some quid pro quo. Mark J. But the cost may have been tiickling.

They are not new, but they need to be reconsidered in these critical times. The US tried to convince China it would be in its interest not to constrict freedom of and to peacefully settle its boundary disputes. TMF takes over custody of Pak-Turk schools A representative of the TMF while talking to Pakistan Observer here on Saturday said the TMF is committed towards qualitative educational empowerment and 'we will be integrating some unique measures into our system like tuition fee of the Schools will be decreased by 20pc for all students compared arcihve the current levels of fees.

This brings us back to the present — and the future. It should also elaborate in contemporary intelligible legal language its objections to US military intelligence gathering activities in its exclusive economic zone.

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Moreover, Vietnam and Indonesia which also objects to China's claimscontrary to the UN Convention that they have ratified, do not allow innocent passage of foreign warships in their territorial seas without their consent, while Malaysia does not allow foreign military exercises in its exclusive economic zone without its consent.

It cannot solve the problem, but make it more complicated. Clinton also said the US "has a national interest in freedom ofopen access to Asia's maritime commons and respect for international law in the South China Sea. The US Navy currently has clear military superiority over Chinese naval forces, an advantage that is likely to extend for many years to come. Moreover, US defense spending is expected to steadily decline in the aftermath of the financial crisis and there is a growing domestic debate about the size and cost of the US military.

China is unlikely to forgive or forget the fact and especially the manner of US interference. Such a code would most importantly ban "the use or threat of force by any claimant attempting to enforce disputed claims in the South China Sea.

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The somewhat softened US-ASEAN summit statement "reaffirmed archve importance of regional peace and stability, maritime security, unimpeded commerce, and freedom ofin accordance with relevant universally agreed principles of international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and other international maritime law, and the peaceful settlement of disputes.

They face the fundamental question of "whether, how much and for how long Asians should remain complicit in facilitating, legitimizing and essentially sustaining US hegemony. However, Malaysia and Vietnam now seem to be suggesting in their extended medka shelf claim that the islands should not generate shelves or exclusive economic zones. At the Hanoi summit, the US verbally ambushed and embarrassed China in front of an Asian audience frum Vietnam, China's sometime nemesis.

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Few countries would tolerate such provocative activities by a potential enemy without responding in some fashion. On the contrary, over the past two years there have been a developments regarding the South China Sea that have ificant implications for regional security.

But the alternative — a festering sore covered by mediia scab that can be picked every time relations deteriorate or extra regional powers wish to do so — should be a nightmare that no regional state wants to repeat. Australia appears to favor China's bilateral approach to resolving the South China Sea disputes. Perhaps when they become serious enough to no longer be ignored by the international community, a ticklnig or temporary solution will be imposed from the outside.

By Mark J.